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Study proves referees favour home teams
England - 01 November, 2006
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Every weekend fans of the visiting clubs show contempt for the referees, claiming the refs favour the home club.
Research of 2,500 Premier League matches now proves what those fans have always known - referees are "homers."
The referees will not be happy to hear this because they do take their jobs seriously and they are not happy when their honour is being questioned, whether by Sir Alex Ferguson, Neil Warnock or Ron Manager.
University of Bath researchers have found statistically, that referees are more likely to show yellow and red cards to players of the visiting club.
The study also backed one of the most common criticisms from Premier League managers and fans. It found that some referees are prone to discipline players more than others, with underdogs being punished more than the elite clubs.
"Managers have been right to highlight inconsistencies," said Dr. Peter Dawson, a lecturer in economics at the University of Bath and a fan of the English Wigan Athletics.
"But without proper analysis of refereeing decisions over a period of time, their comments look like the usual post-match gripe.
"The evidence we have collected and analysed provides a firm factual foundation that will help football's authorities debate what positive action they might take to ensure fair and equitable refereeing in the future. This could include encouraging referees to avoid what is presumably unintentional home-team bias in their decision-making."
Leading referees had little to say on the matter.
"Stats can prove whatever you want," said one source
Keith Hackett, the general manager of Professional Game Match Officials Ltd, the referees' governing body, does not give the "home-bias" study much credence.
"It's not the message we're getting from our match assessors or independent match delegates," said Hackett. "We have a mix of personalities as referees and no two games are alike � that is the nature of the Premiership.
"It's very easy to produce statistics without discussing them with match officials or the other management teams involved, but we're always interested in information to see if we can learn from it. I'm sure it's an interesting read."
In May 2004, Daniel Finkelstein wrote in his Fink Tank column in The Times, "Some experimental work testing decision-making under pressure from a crowd suggests that officials can be swayed by home supporters. Home sides have 5 per cent fewer fouls given against them on average and collect 25 per cent fewer yellow cards."
The Fink Tank reported last January on another anecdote, the apparent stream of penalties awarded to English Manchester United, especially when playing at Old Trafford.
"United are, as has long been argued by those who do not like them, significantly favoured in penalty decisions," wrote Finkelstein. "Their advantage is particularly strong at home."
Dawson had help from researchers at the universities of Bath, Otago, ST Andrews and Bangor, who analysed all 2,660 matches during the Premier League seasons from 1996-97 to 2002-03.
"The football pitch is like a laboratory for crime economists," said Dawson. "You can introduce a new rule or increase the severity of the punishment and then see how long it takes for the referees and players to adjust their behaviour."
Research of 2,500 Premier League matches now proves what those fans have always known - referees are "homers."
The referees will not be happy to hear this because they do take their jobs seriously and they are not happy when their honour is being questioned, whether by Sir Alex Ferguson, Neil Warnock or Ron Manager.
University of Bath researchers have found statistically, that referees are more likely to show yellow and red cards to players of the visiting club.
The study also backed one of the most common criticisms from Premier League managers and fans. It found that some referees are prone to discipline players more than others, with underdogs being punished more than the elite clubs.
"Managers have been right to highlight inconsistencies," said Dr. Peter Dawson, a lecturer in economics at the University of Bath and a fan of the English Wigan Athletics.
"But without proper analysis of refereeing decisions over a period of time, their comments look like the usual post-match gripe.
"The evidence we have collected and analysed provides a firm factual foundation that will help football's authorities debate what positive action they might take to ensure fair and equitable refereeing in the future. This could include encouraging referees to avoid what is presumably unintentional home-team bias in their decision-making."
Leading referees had little to say on the matter.
"Stats can prove whatever you want," said one source
Keith Hackett, the general manager of Professional Game Match Officials Ltd, the referees' governing body, does not give the "home-bias" study much credence.
"It's not the message we're getting from our match assessors or independent match delegates," said Hackett. "We have a mix of personalities as referees and no two games are alike � that is the nature of the Premiership.
"It's very easy to produce statistics without discussing them with match officials or the other management teams involved, but we're always interested in information to see if we can learn from it. I'm sure it's an interesting read."
In May 2004, Daniel Finkelstein wrote in his Fink Tank column in The Times, "Some experimental work testing decision-making under pressure from a crowd suggests that officials can be swayed by home supporters. Home sides have 5 per cent fewer fouls given against them on average and collect 25 per cent fewer yellow cards."
The Fink Tank reported last January on another anecdote, the apparent stream of penalties awarded to English Manchester United, especially when playing at Old Trafford.
"United are, as has long been argued by those who do not like them, significantly favoured in penalty decisions," wrote Finkelstein. "Their advantage is particularly strong at home."
Dawson had help from researchers at the universities of Bath, Otago, ST Andrews and Bangor, who analysed all 2,660 matches during the Premier League seasons from 1996-97 to 2002-03.
"The football pitch is like a laboratory for crime economists," said Dawson. "You can introduce a new rule or increase the severity of the punishment and then see how long it takes for the referees and players to adjust their behaviour."
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